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Resource · 2026-02-01

Exploring possible AI trajectories through 2030

A set of four scenarios on the capabilities of AI published by the OECD. This has scenarios ranging from progress stalling to AI equalling or surpassing human capabilities across most or all activities by 2030. The report states all scenarios are plausible. The scenarios are focused on model capabilities, rather than other dimensions such as regulation, adoption and incidents.

SourceOECD
GroupAI capabilities and scenarios
Sub-groupMainstream scenarios
Publication date2026-02-01