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Resource · 2026-03-01

Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis

This report reviews AI forecasting and usefulness to policymakers. Chapter 4 - Understanding Disagreement: The Cruxes - is the most useful to investors as it outlines the three key questions that differentiate scenarios - capability, diffusion, and take-off.

SourceRAND
GroupAI capabilities and scenarios
Sub-groupReviews of scenarios and forecasts
Publication date2026-03-01